- Bitcoin could rise to $10,500 in the next 24 hours or so, as the 4-hour chart is looking more bullish.
- A break above $11,120 is needed to revive the short-term bullish outlook, though.
- Some expert believe the just-announced U.S. Fed interest rate cut could bode well for BTC in the long-run.
Bitcoin (BTC) has eked out moderate gains amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of its first rate cut in over a decade.
The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $9,950 on Bitstamp, representing a 2 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday said it will lower interest rates by 0.25 percent to cushion the economy from a global slowdown and trade tensions. That was the first U.S. interest rate cut since the great financial crisis of 2008, and indeed since the creation of bitcoin in 2009.
BTC rose by over $200 to $10,000 in the three hours leading up to the Fed’s announcement at 18:00 UTC. More importantly, the cryptocurrency remained bid in the following hours and hit a high of $10,172, according to Bitstamp data.
The price action seems to have convinced investors that BTC picked up a bid due to Fed’s rate cut.
Boon for bitcoin?
Some observers believe rate cuts by the Fed bode well for BTC.
This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yield on a currency. Further, the liquidity added to the economy via rate cuts often leads to inflation and loss of purchasing power of the currency.
Put simply, falling interest rates mean fewer reasons to hold U.S. dollars, as pointed out by Alan Silbert, executive managing director at INX Trading Platform.
Silbert believes the Fed will deliver more rate cuts in the near future. The central bank, however, refrained from signaled further easing yesterday.
The Fed has cut rates less than 12 months away from bitcoin’s mining reward halving – a process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing reward for mining on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.
Essentially, BTC’s monetary policy is on a preset path – its supply is halved every four years.
The monetary policy divergence would widen further if the Fed embarks on a full-blown easing cycle, as anticipated by Silbert. That would further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as store of value and may bolster the bull market.
As for the next 24 hours, bitcoin looks set to test key average located at $10,500.
BTC rose above $10,000 yesterday, validating the seller exhaustion signaled by the long-tailed doji created on the 4-hour chart on July 28.
That bullish doji reversal indicates that the sell-off from recent highs above $13,000 has ended and the path of least resistance is to the higher side. The descending triangle breakout confirmed yesterday also indicates a bull reversal.
Notably, buying volumes picked up following the price breakout. The green volume bar created in the four hours to 16:00 UTC yesterday was the highest since July 19.
Hence, the cryptocurrency may rise toward $10,500 (50-day moving average) over the next day or two. However, the outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish only if and when BTC invalidates the bearish lower-highs pattern with a move above $11,120.
The case for a rise to the 50-day MA in the next 24 hours would weaken if prices find acceptance below yesterday’s low of $9,574, although that looks unlikely.
Despite the lack of decisiveness in the bitcoin market following the dominant crypto asset’s abrupt drop from $14,000 to $9,500, many analysts – even bearish ones – generally remain confident that the bitcoin price is heading towards a new record high in 2020.
On CNBC’s Squawk Box, as CCN reported, prominent news anchor Joe Kernen emphasized the imminence of the next halving of the Bitcoin blockchain protocol, suggesting that it could act as a major catalyst for the asset over the medium to long term.
Bitcoin price should surge as one crucial event disrupts supply & demand ratio
In recent years, the bitcoin price has been primarily driven by supply and demand from the market. As the market capitalization of the asset grew, the impact of news and events have started to lessen.
The block reward halving of bitcoin, which occurs approximately every four years, is expected to have a fundamental effect on the circulating supply of bitcoin, altering the rate at which new BTC are mined.
On the Bitcoin blockchain protocol, users mine BTC to secure transactions and process payments using mining equipment and electricity. In return for the consumption of resources, miners are rewarded with BTC, which then is sold, primarily through over-the-counter (OTC) markets.
During or around May 2020, the amount of BTC miners receive for processing transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain protocol will decline by half, leading to a decline in the inflow of BTC into the global market from miners.
‘You’re on Your Own’: UK Watchdog is Fear-Mongering Bitcoin Investors
Dow Rebounds After Mnuchin, Lighthizer Conclude ‘Frank’ Shanghai Talks
“With what we produce of gold every year, it would take 62 years to produce that much gold. If you do the same kind of analysis using bitcoin or silver or anything, you can come up with some of these flow metrics that are highly correlated. Silver I think is 22 years and gold is… and in the next halving, bitcoin, all of the sudden, gets close up to where gold is…. we will see anyway.”
Due to the block reward halving and other technical indicators, technical analysts who remain bearish on the short-term trend of bitcoin have stated that in the long-term, the trajectory of the dominant cryptocurrency is likely to be positive.