- Bitcoin has risen by $1,000 since Friday’s announcement by Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23. The price rise has neutralized the bearish setup on the intraday charts seen last week.
- The gains could be extended further to $11,000, as the hourly chart is reporting a bullish continuation pattern.
- The weekly chart continues to call a deeper pullback to $9,000 with key moving averages (MAs) producing a first bearish crossover since February.
- A weekly close above $12,000 is needed for a complete bullish revival.
Bitcoin (BTC) has gained $1,000 since the Bakkt exchange announced it has the green light to offer bitcoin futures, but key resistance still lies ahead.
The top cryptocurrency picked up a bid around $9,700 in the U.S. trading hours on Friday and printed highs above $10,750 earlier today, according to Bitstamp data.
Notably, the move above $10,000 happened on Friday after CoinDesk reported that the Intercontinental Exchange’s young subsidiary Bakkt has received regulatory approval to launch its much-anticipated platform for daily and monthly BTC futures.
Bitcoin futures to be launched by Bakkt will be physically settled, as opposed to the cash-settled futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Put simply, BTC futures trading on Bakkt will not rely upon unregulated spot markets for settlement prices and the party will receive delivery of bitcoins from the Bakkt Digital Asset Warehouse at the end of the contract period.
Many observers, including cryptocurrency analyst and trader Scott Melker, are of the opinion that Bakkt’s physically-delivered futures product will open the floodgates for the institutional money and is a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.
Physically delivered futures require the actual purchase of bitcoins, which, according to Melker is a “huge” development. Also, there is general consensus that the price discovery in new physical delivery markets will contribute to building confidence in BTC prices.
That said, some observers are warning that an increased institutional volume my not necessarily translate into stronger buying pressure.
“Volume is volume, don’t express your bias toward it”, popular Cryptocurrency market analyst @CryptoNekoZ tweeted earlier today.
Meanwhile, financial analyst and tech journalist Joseph Young tweeted over the weekend that, “Bakkt launch was priced into the market”.
So far, the markets have reacted positively to Bakkt news if the $1,000 price rise is anything to go by.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $10,700 on Bitstamp and could rise further to $11,000. The gains, however, could be short-lived as the odds are stacked against the bulls, according to technical charts.
BTC witnessed a high-volume ascending triangle breakout earlier today. The bullish continuation pattern indicates a resumption of the rally from the last week’s low of $9,467 and has created room for a rise to $11,000.
So far, however, the upside has been capped around $10,750.
BTC fell 10.49 percent last week, strengthening the case for a deeper pullback put forward by the preceding week’s rejection above $12,000.
The 14-week relative strength index has created a bearish lower high. Further, the 5-week moving average (MA) has crossed below the 10-week MA for the first time since February.
Currently, the 5-week MA is seen at $10,610 and the 10-week MA is located at $10,691. The bearish crossover indicates the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The moving average convergence divergence histogram continues to produce lower highs above the zero line, a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
All-in-all, the case for a fall back to $9,000 remains intact. The outlook would turn bullish only if prices print a weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000.
- Bitcoin could rise to $10,500 in the next 24 hours or so, as the 4-hour chart is looking more bullish.
- A break above $11,120 is needed to revive the short-term bullish outlook, though.
- Some expert believe the just-announced U.S. Fed interest rate cut could bode well for BTC in the long-run.
Bitcoin (BTC) has eked out moderate gains amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of its first rate cut in over a decade.
The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $9,950 on Bitstamp, representing a 2 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday said it will lower interest rates by 0.25 percent to cushion the economy from a global slowdown and trade tensions. That was the first U.S. interest rate cut since the great financial crisis of 2008, and indeed since the creation of bitcoin in 2009.
BTC rose by over $200 to $10,000 in the three hours leading up to the Fed’s announcement at 18:00 UTC. More importantly, the cryptocurrency remained bid in the following hours and hit a high of $10,172, according to Bitstamp data.
The price action seems to have convinced investors that BTC picked up a bid due to Fed’s rate cut.
Boon for bitcoin?
Some observers believe rate cuts by the Fed bode well for BTC.
This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yield on a currency. Further, the liquidity added to the economy via rate cuts often leads to inflation and loss of purchasing power of the currency.
Put simply, falling interest rates mean fewer reasons to hold U.S. dollars, as pointed out by Alan Silbert, executive managing director at INX Trading Platform.
Silbert believes the Fed will deliver more rate cuts in the near future. The central bank, however, refrained from signaled further easing yesterday.
The Fed has cut rates less than 12 months away from bitcoin’s mining reward halving – a process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing reward for mining on the blockchain by 50 percent every four years.
Essentially, BTC’s monetary policy is on a preset path – its supply is halved every four years.
The monetary policy divergence would widen further if the Fed embarks on a full-blown easing cycle, as anticipated by Silbert. That would further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as store of value and may bolster the bull market.
As for the next 24 hours, bitcoin looks set to test key average located at $10,500.
BTC rose above $10,000 yesterday, validating the seller exhaustion signaled by the long-tailed doji created on the 4-hour chart on July 28.
That bullish doji reversal indicates that the sell-off from recent highs above $13,000 has ended and the path of least resistance is to the higher side. The descending triangle breakout confirmed yesterday also indicates a bull reversal.
Notably, buying volumes picked up following the price breakout. The green volume bar created in the four hours to 16:00 UTC yesterday was the highest since July 19.
Hence, the cryptocurrency may rise toward $10,500 (50-day moving average) over the next day or two. However, the outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish only if and when BTC invalidates the bearish lower-highs pattern with a move above $11,120.
The case for a rise to the 50-day MA in the next 24 hours would weaken if prices find acceptance below yesterday’s low of $9,574, although that looks unlikely.
Despite the lack of decisiveness in the bitcoin market following the dominant crypto asset’s abrupt drop from $14,000 to $9,500, many analysts – even bearish ones – generally remain confident that the bitcoin price is heading towards a new record high in 2020.
On CNBC’s Squawk Box, as CCN reported, prominent news anchor Joe Kernen emphasized the imminence of the next halving of the Bitcoin blockchain protocol, suggesting that it could act as a major catalyst for the asset over the medium to long term.
Bitcoin price should surge as one crucial event disrupts supply & demand ratio
In recent years, the bitcoin price has been primarily driven by supply and demand from the market. As the market capitalization of the asset grew, the impact of news and events have started to lessen.
The block reward halving of bitcoin, which occurs approximately every four years, is expected to have a fundamental effect on the circulating supply of bitcoin, altering the rate at which new BTC are mined.
On the Bitcoin blockchain protocol, users mine BTC to secure transactions and process payments using mining equipment and electricity. In return for the consumption of resources, miners are rewarded with BTC, which then is sold, primarily through over-the-counter (OTC) markets.
During or around May 2020, the amount of BTC miners receive for processing transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain protocol will decline by half, leading to a decline in the inflow of BTC into the global market from miners.
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“With what we produce of gold every year, it would take 62 years to produce that much gold. If you do the same kind of analysis using bitcoin or silver or anything, you can come up with some of these flow metrics that are highly correlated. Silver I think is 22 years and gold is… and in the next halving, bitcoin, all of the sudden, gets close up to where gold is…. we will see anyway.”
Due to the block reward halving and other technical indicators, technical analysts who remain bearish on the short-term trend of bitcoin have stated that in the long-term, the trajectory of the dominant cryptocurrency is likely to be positive.